The 21st century is ripe for a nuclear renaissance, many energy analysts say. Reactors are planned in record numbers in China, India and Eastern Europe, and advanced new models will replace existing generators in North America and Western Europe.
Canada is among many countries poised to benefit from a new generation of reactor construction, both domestically and abroad. Baseload power demand, the minimum level of energy needed for households and industry, is growing at a rate that Canada's existing generators can't match.
"Canada has extensive access to hydro resources," says Jerry Hopwood, vice-president of product development at Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., "but they're not available everywhere, and are largely tapped out.
"Wind and solar power can supplement baseload generators, but they're too intermittent to replace them entirely."
Nuclear power generation emits no greenhouse gases, a crucial consideration for new energy infrastructure. It's also much less vulnerable to market volatility than fossil fuels. As the only country in the world with large high-grade uranium deposits, Canada stands to gain a high degree of energy independence by relying increasingly upon nuclear generators.
While reactors don't pollute, or cause environmental disruption the way large hydro projects do, not everyone sees nuclear as the way of the future. Greenpeace is opposed to new investment in nuclear power in Canada.
Shawn-Patrick Stensil, the NGO's Canadian energy policy analyst, says, "direct and indirect government subsidies have given nuclear power an unfair advantage, and have blocked the development of green power in Canada."
Harder to quantify is the degree to which the risks of nuclear power, financial and environmental, are borne by the public instead of by the industry itself. Ottawa is currently considering legislation to limit compensation for nuclear accidents, for example, which would effectively exempt this industry from the tort law that applies to virtually all other businesses, including other forms of power generation.
"In practice, this dramatically lowers the insurance costs that reactor operators would otherwise bear," Mr. Stensil says. "Simply put, the nuclear industry can't afford itself -- if they had to pay for cost overruns and insurance, nobody would be in that business."
It's a concern shared by Dr. Peter Nemetz, a professor at UBC's Sauder School of Business, and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, who points out that operating and maintenance costs for Ontario's existing CANDU reactors have run hundreds of millions of dollars over budget. Most of this tab has been settled with public dollars, and such interventions reduce incentives both for reducing consumption and developing alternatives.
"We will likely need to rely on nuclear power to some extent to meet our baseload energy requirements," Dr. Nemetz concedes, "but there is still a lot of room to reduce demand. Setting rates based on peak use times and the marginal cost of generating power has been very successful in the U.S., and we're not yet doing that in Canada."
While financing reactor construction and operations is fraught with economic and political problems, the growth of AECL, which sells CANDU reactors around the world, carries with it many benefits for Canada, in the form of jobs and spin-off industries. Dr. Neil Alexander is the president of the Organization of CANDU Industries, a group of 160 small and large companies that provide goods or services necessary for the reactors.
"We represent more than 30,000 jobs throughout the country," Mr. Alexander says, "ranging from manufacturing jobs to research and design. Because of the extremely high standards for quality control, these are jobs that can't be outsourced." As well as representing industries supporting CANDU reactors worldwide, the OCI hopes to make the supply chain better integrated, and thus Canadian reactors more competitive.
On the international stage, the Canadian nuclear industry faces significant challenges from competitors that enjoy more domestic support. The French government owns 92% of nuclear power giant Areva, for example, and backs the company, awarding it contracts even when other corporations, such as Toshiba and General Electric, claim to have submitted lower bids. Areva is also vertically integrated, with uranium extraction and refining, and reactor construction, maintenance and clean-up all carried out either in house or by sister companies.
Harrie Vredenberg, Professor of Strategy & Suncor Energy Chair at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business, believes Canada will ultimately benefit from the international nuclear renaissance if policymakers commit to the industry's success.
"Ottawa should privatize and restructure AECL as soon as possible, which would make it commercially nimble and less subject to government meddling," Dr. Vredenberg says, "as well as favouring Canadian technology and firms domestically, and supporting the training of nuclear workers, a well-paid and highly educated group whose employment prospects are stable."